The NSE Ratio. Uncover the optimal frequency for engaging in new experiments
Stavros begins his career in academia, earning a doctorate in organisational transformations. He quickly transitioned to consulting, establishing himself as a prominent expert in organisational behaviour in his home country.
Stavros begins his career in academia, earning a doctorate in organisational transformations. He quickly transitioned to consulting, establishing himself as a prominent expert in organisational behaviour in his home country.
Allow me to share a personal secret – an algorithm I have embraced throughout my journey as an Agile consultant, leading to the creation ofnumerous innovative and diverse techniques. At the core of this algorithm lies the principle of Never Stop Experimenting (NSE), which has inspired the name of the NSE ratio. However, it is crucial to recognize that experimentation should not become an end in itself; it must be administered judiciously. As we are aware, the distinction between medicine and poison lies in the dosage. Thus, this technique serves as a compass, addressing the essential question of whether and how frequently to embark on experiments within your specific circumstances.
What is an experiment?
Let me offer you a straightforward definition of an experiment – a process wherein we introduce changes to our actions without possessing absolute certainty regarding the outcome. Depending on the level of predictability concerning the expected results, I personally classify experiments into three distinct types:
White Experiment
In this category, the likelihood of achieving the desired outcome surpasses 80%. These experiments are typically rooted in extensive research, often accompanied by substantialempirical evidence supporting their efficacy in our specific context. Once the probability reaches 100%, the experiment transcends its experimental nature and transforms into aproven solution.
Grey Experiment
Grey experiments reside within the range of 50 to 80% probability. Such circumstances often arise when we encounter a unique case, despite existing empirical studies indicating potential success. Through additional research orsmaller "sub-experiments", it may be possible to elevate grey experiments to the level of white experiments.
Black Experiment
Black experiments embody a probability under 50%, with a closer percentage to 0 indicating a more daring leap into the unknown. These experiments often lack reliance on empirical studies, instead being driven by intuition or the pursuit of novelty. At times, they are inadvertent "accidental" mistakes, which history has demonstrated can lead to significant break-throughs.
How often should I experiment?
The NSE ratio provides a concrete answer to a crucial question:
When should we introduce a change or embark on an experiment after a certain number of repetitions of agiven action?
By default, the NSE ratio stands at 1:10, signifying that for every 10 repetitions, we conduct 1 experiment.
However, this ratio can be adjusted based on several factors. These factorsmanifest as questions, each contributing to the transformation of the ratio.Consider the following inquiries:
- Is it challenging for you to explain the outcomes of your actions?
If the answer is affirmative, increment the left side of the NSE ratio by 1. Consequently, the default ratio of 1:10 evolves into 2:10. - Do your actions occasionally yield diverse results?
Once again, if your response is yes, add 1 to the left side of the NSE ratio. - Do you find yourself dissatisfied with the current outcomes?
If this resonates with you, incorporate 1 into the left part of the NSE ratio. - Do you possess an inherent urge to explore new territories and experiences?
Should you answer in the affirmative, augment the left side of the NSE ratio by 1. - Do you have a strong desire for personal growth and continuous learning?
Once again, if your response is yes, add 1 to the left side of the NSE ratio. - On a scale of 0 (lowest) to 5 (highest), what is at stake if you maintain the status quo without making any changes?
Add your response to the left part of the NSE ratio. For instance, if your current NSE ratio is 3:10 and you rate the stakes as 3, the revised NSE ratio becomes 6:10. - On a scale of 0 (lowest) to 5 (highest), what are the potential consequences in the event of an error or worst-case scenario arising from a change?
Deduct your response from the left side of the NSE ratio. For example, if your current NSE ratio is 6:10 and you rate the consequences as 4, the updated NSE ratio becomes 2:10.
By thoughtfully considering these questions, you will discern your personalised NSE ratio. A higher value on the left side signifies a greater inclination towards experimentation. If the left side holds a negative value, experimentation remains integral, but limited to white experiments, adhering to the default value of 1:10.
